MyDD :: The Race for November

The Race for November

by thezzyzx, Wed May 28, 2008 at 10:41:57 AM EST

There's so much gloom and doom here that I thought I'd break the mood. Look at the map in the upper left corner. Pre-unity, Obama has the lead and this is without MI and WI.

OK now, put yourself into McCain's camp. What's his plan to win the election. As I see it, his only hope is to flip NH and OH from that map and then play defense in Michigan, Wisconsin, Virgina, the Carolinas, Nevada, Nebraska's extra electoral votes, and maybe Georgia and Alaska if Barr plays a role.

The good scenario for McCain, barring some collapse, is squeaking out a 272/268 victory, and that assumes pretty much everything goes his way. It's not over by any means, but we're in a good position now. I won't say we should relax, but try not to freak out too much in the next few months. Use that energy to fight some more and we could break 300.

Tags: general election, optimism (all tags)

Permalink :: 34 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The Race for November (2.00 / 2)

First - You overlook Indiana, even though a recent poll shows Obama tied, he lost the state to Clinton and Indiana hasn't gone Dem since 1964. In fact, it is the most Republican of Great Lakes states - giving Dubya margins of 15% and 20%.

Second - Virginia is another big stretch. Although Dems have won in statewide races, Virginia, too, hasn't gone Dem since 1964. And again, just one poll showing it tied.

That takes the number down to 266 - i.e. below 270.

Third - Ohio, Michigan, and Penna will be tough for Obama because of all of the people belonging to a demographic which cannot be mentioned here - many of whom bowl and eat salads with iceberg lettuce. They have been slammed by the present economy. Is McCain a good choice? No, but they voted for Clinton and are not happy. If they stay home, Obama is in trouble.

Fourth - Where does Obama pick up any extra leeway outside of the map you mention? Clinton leads in West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, Florida - all states that Clinton/Gore won in creating a comfortable margin in 1992/1996.

Obama's "Best Case" scenario is as narrow as McCain's.
That's what troubles me.

by johnnygunn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 10:56:18 AM EST

Is this a Democratic site or not? (2.00 / 2)

No wonder there's so much gloom and doom around here. You can't swing a cat without hitting someone who really WANTS Obama to lose.

Thanks for a diary based on, you know, reality. On a site led by a not-too-bright Hillary dead ender, it seems you're bound to have to deal with a lot of really negative, really unintelligent stuff like this all the time.

I've thought about beginning to post diaries here but I've been amazed at the volume of people who you can't distinguish from Republican trolls.

You post this nice cheerleader diary about the Democratic nominee's chances in the fall. It's a call to arms. It's time to end the Bush regime and that means Obama beats McCain. And it seems like it's guaranteed that the first response you're going to get here is negative.

by Sun Dog on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:03:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is this a Democratic site or not? (none / 0)

Eh, if it's reached the point where they're feeling the need to spam here, I REALLY like our chances.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

by thezzyzx on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:10:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is this a Democratic site or not? (2.00 / 1)

Yessirree bobtail -
Speaking of cats.

You guys are doing a mighty-fine job of coalition building.
Almost as good as Lamont's campaign.

On a site led by a not-too-bright Hillary dead ender

a lot of really negative, really unintelligent stuff like this all the time.

the volume of people who you can't distinguish from Republican trolls.

So, go ahead.
Continue to blast people who say that numerous polls show Clinton still ahead in the general despite a month of MSM news that she is out of the race. Doesn't that concern you just a teensy-weensy bit that Obama has led Clinton in the Dem tallies of both Gallup and Rasmussen by 8 to ten points, but that while Clinton has led McCain in matchups, Obama trails - a net of 5 -6 points difference?

Not only do y'all ignore what you choose not to consider, but you blast anyone who disagrees AND who you will need come November. I am 98% to the point tossing Obama. And to think, that just a month ago I thought that anyone who said that was crazy.

Well, call me crazy - but at a certain point you just don't want to up and join people who flip you the bird all the time.

Like I have often said of late - -
Enjoy your moral victory this November.

PS - You smug little twits.
I have worked for the Dems all my life.
So you can just sit enjoy your little "Is this a Democratic site?" comments all the more as you alienate a good 25% of Clinton supporters. I don't relish a GOP victory, but I will delight in seeing y'all get your comeuppance.

by johnnygunn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:26:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Get over it (none / 0)

There is more at stake than your feelings.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:31:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (2.00 / 2)

Yeah, I'll get over it.

Me and millions of others will get over it all the way to the ballot box.
I'm plannning on voting for Cynthia McKinney at this point.
Many Clinton supporters will write-in HRC's name.
Others may just stay home.
A few might vote for McCain - not many.

It's Lamont redux - with a Lamont finale upcoming. Have fun!

by johnnygunn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:41:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

Go ahead. We will win this without you.

If your best thinking leads you to vote for Cynthia McKinney then your loss won't be noticed much.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:45:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (2.00 / 1)

You know -

Obama supporters have told a whole bunch of folks to "Bug Off!"

Blue-collar whites.
Middle-aged women.
Boomers.
Queer folks.

All with the caveat that they will magically produce more voters from their hordes of supporters. I would caution you that the general election is not the nomination campaign within the Democratic Party.

<<<>>>

I love it.
I started out this thread pointing out that the Dems haven't carried Indiana or Virginia in a long time and I get blasted by Obamans. Not to mention that there's a truly nasty reference to the owner of this website.

It really goes to show how much diplomacy y'all have.
You'll scream and holler and call everybody who does not support you all kinds of names - paint yourselves into a corner - -
And lose.

by johnnygunn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:58:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (2.00 / 1)

The only people I have told to bug off are hyper sensitive Clinton supporters such as yourself. Everyone is welcome on the Obama bandwagon. When you realize your temper tantrum won't solve anything I hope you decide to support him.

The time for diplomacy was two months ago. You have had that long to come to terms with your feelings about Clinton losing. That is more than enough time. Either get on board or get out of the way. If you want to stand in the way of Obama becoming President then you are just as much of a problem as the Republicans are. Expect to be treated the same way.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:12:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

I'd give that reply a mojo rating 100 times if I could. This reply encapsulates everything that has gone wrong within this primary season. Now is the time for the HRC supporters to finally lick their wounds, wipe the tears from their eyes, and either support Obama or let us supporters be. We've taken your badgering and troll ratings long enough. If you want to help , then help, we all have the same goal, to make this a much better country than it is now. We all know McCain sold his soul long ago to the conservative right. So please before making a hasty decision, weigh both candidates Obama, and McCain, and see which one has ideals closer to your candidates, And I'm sure you'll be on the Obama bandwagon also.

John McCain: Everyones nowhere man

by johnny sexton on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:09:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

"Obama supporters have told a whole bunch of folks to "Bug Off!" Blue-collar whites. Middle-aged women. Boomers. Queer folks."

Um, no we really haven't, no matter how much you'd like to think we did. Any other inanity you'd like to accuse us off?

by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:16:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

Perhaps it is all perception -
You say "To-may-to"
And I say "To-mah-to"

Who is to say which is "right"?

Well, there is one logical construct you fail to consider.

a) If your perception is right and mine is wrong, you may also be correct in telling me so. Still, your candidate does not get my vote and the votes of millions of other disaffected Clinton supporters.

b) If my perception is right and yours is wrong, not only do you compound the error in your response, but you also fail to gain my vote and the votes of millions of other disaffected Clinton supporters.

c) And if both of us are partly wrong and party right, you gain little. But, yet again, your candidate does not get my vote and the votes of millions of other disaffected Clinton supporters.

Do you notice any pattern here? I will have to credit Dave Axelrod. He has run a brilliant campaign. And most recently, his advice for Obama supporters to "clam up" at the DNC meeting this weekend is the absolute right advice.

Whether that actually takes place or not is another story. At this juncture, Obama needs the vast majority of Clinton supporters. Even a defection rate of 10% could doom his chances. Therefore, it is incumbent for his supporters to be extra-nice. Instead, the anti-Clinton epithets continue to be hurled.

And you act surprised.
Goodness!

by johnnygunn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

Not how I see it.

People like you will never be satisfied because you don't understand what is going on. You seem to believe your feelings are more important than the actual outcome of the election. That is irrational. Don't ask me to pander to your irrational beliefs. I won't do it. Go vote for McKinney or Gilligan if you want. We will do our best without your help.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:46:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

And you will lose.

Please remind me of the final totals for the Lamont contest?
Remember, this all started when I said that Indiana hadn't gone Dem since 1964.
Then I got called a Republican troll and Jerome - a dead-ender.

Do you honestly think you can pull in 90%+ of Clinton supporters with that approach?
If so, then I have a bridge for you.
Hell, I'll even toss in the Holland Tunnel.

by johnnygunn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:51:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

Fine then. We will lose.

If 90%+ of Clinton supporters don't want to help us win in November because an anonymous blog commenter called you and Jerome a "dead-ender" then we deserve to lose this election and every other one until the Democratic Party ceases to exist.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

So, in short:

you accuse Obama supporters of telling you all to bugger off.
if I agree with you, I will lose your vote, since I'll be in essence telling you to bugger off indeed.
if I disagree with you and say that we told you no such thing I'm being contradictory, will be injuring your pride, and we will be losing your vote anyway.
So I must stay silent and let you maintain the perception that we told you to bugger off, because that maintains the best possibility of you not buggering off.

Have I gotten your argument correctly so far?

If so, here's my response then - your basic premise is wrong, this is not all about perception, and Obama supporters are not a monolithic bunch with the same set of responses towards everything.

As such, if I tell you that we, as Obama supporters, have told you no such thing, then I'm not merely stating my own perception, I'm challenging the truth-value of any collectivist perception that doesn't differentiate between individual supporters of our candidate.

by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:22:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Get over it (none / 0)

"Go ahead. We will win this without you."

I'm sorry but you most certainly won't.

by wblynch on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:46:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm in the.... (2.00 / 2)

"stay at home" camp.

I don't believe in Obama's "new map." It's untested and ridiculous. The fact that the media is promoting it like it's actually plausible is even more ridiculous.

by soyousay on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm in the.... (none / 0)

You poor dear.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:58:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

johnnygun (none / 0)

I don't believe in pandering. Pulling punches about Hillary's crappy, lying campaign isn't a way to show her supporters respect. I'm not going to pretend she's something she's not to protect the feelings of people who have been misled by her or by Jerome and his barely literate rantings.

The way to show Clinton supporters respect is to argue with them when I think they're wrong, always speak the truth as I see it and get Hillary off the stage as soon as possilbe. Because that way the Democratic nominee can campaign to people on the issues that matter to them and to me and my family, which is what this is all about. It's not about people's undying love for a crooked politician. That I have pity for but I won't pander to it.

by Sun Dog on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: johnnygun (2.00 / 1)

Compare this statement - - -

The way to show Clinton supporters respect is to argue with them when I think they're wrong

To - - -

On a site led by a not-too-bright Hillary dead ender

And - - -

Pulling punches about Hillary's crappy, lying campaign isn't a way to show her supporters respect.

Which, of course, isn't as bad as "Fucking whore" and other lovely epithets tossed out at Clinton, but it says all.

You don't show any respect.

My initial post was that the Dems have not carried Indiana and Virginia since 1964. That they have lost Indiana in the past two by 15% to 20%. Is that wrong? Is that lying???

And I also posted that polls have consistently shown Clinton up in many border states and Florida. Again, is that wrong?

Instead, I get a snarky, nasty response with the title "Is this a Democratic site or not?" You should not be surprised in the least when I respond in the most negative manner possible. I have been a Democrat for 30+ years - have given, campaigned, canvassed - and to have some newbie blogger toss out this kind of crap when I had started off the discussion in a civil - albeit debating - frame is galling.

It's not the first time. In fact, it has happened so often that I am 98% alienated from Obama. That is precisely what the Lamont folks did in Connecticut. Even Lamont's campaign director went so far as to describe Waterbury, a blue-collar Lieberman town, as "Where slime intersects with evil". It's called, "Living in a political bubble." Is it any wonder why these people did not come around and vote for Lamont?

Y'all really have to learn a thing or two about building coalitions if you think your candidate is going to win.

by johnnygunn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:14:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You pegged it! (none / 0)

Like I've said before; Trash deserves trash and nothing less.

by soyousay on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:46:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: johnnygun (none / 0)

Oh, yeah that makes sense. Pointing out that Hillary lies and has run a crappy campaign is the same as calling her a 'fucking whore.' Why don't you get your mind out of the gutter? I'm talking politics here.

She has lied constantly and her campaign sucked in a lot of ways. That's pretty demonstrably true. Pretending it isn't doesn't show people respect. You can disagree with me and I'll listen. That's respect. But threatening to help the GOP get elected because your feeling are hurt (for Hillary's sake?) doesn't actually make any sense whatsoever.

I'll say it again. I don't believe in pandering. If you say I need to kiss your ass and pretend I respect Hillary Clinton in order to build a coalition, that isn't a coalition worth belonging to.

If you disagree with me and you think Hillary is cool, no matter what, that's fine. No kidding. Tell me that, we disagree, move on. It's this thing where by saying what I think about Hillary means you won't vote for the Democratic nominee when we just get into bizzaroland.

I'm for honest politics. I'm not going to lie about Barack Obama in order to get him elected. I'm not going to lie about Hillary Clinton to get Barack Obama elected either.

That's change.

by Sun Dog on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:32:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: johnnygun (none / 0)

If Clinton has lied so much and run such a crappy campaign, why is it she leads in the traditional Democratic AND swing states?

Old Democrats, those of us who have kept the flame alive, and fought for the party, and built what we could, and prevented the R/W from running amok where we could, we support Clinton in far greater numbers than the newcomers and Dems-for-a-day and crossover republicans.

If Clinton is such a crappy candidate, why is she still here.. knocking on the door of the Democratic National Convention?

By the time we meet in August, Clinton will trail Obama by no more than 100 pledged delegates, or around 2.5%. That is a very small margin.

If Clinton is such a crappy candidate, why is she leading McCain in the EV maps with 338 to 200, yet Obama leads, only for the first time this week, by 290 to 248?

Clinton WIPES McCain out! Obama can only Hope.

I will go with the sure thing.

If Obama secures the nomination he can HOPE for my vote but he will never get it.

by wblynch on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:58:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Race for November (none / 0)

That is the beauty of Obama as the candidate. We get to draw an entirely NEW electoral map and will keep the republicans on their heels as they try and figure it out.

"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08

by feliks on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:13:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Race for November (none / 0)

We get to draw an entirely NEW electoral map

Heh

by soyousay on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Race for November (none / 0)

Don't overlook Virginia. We have had two Dem governors in a row, elected Jim Webb (D) in 2006, and will elect John Warner (D) to the senate in a landslide in 2008. We are turning blue!

by Virginia Liberal on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:35:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mark (none / 0)

Mark Warner

by Bee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:15:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mark (none / 0)

DOH - thank you. :)

by Virginia Liberal on Wed May 28, 2008 at 10:22:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Race for November (none / 0)

This delightful scenario might put a Democrat at the head of the Executive Branch come January. There is no consideration of coat-tails for the legislative seats that will not only be fought for in 2008, but 2010. If the focus is on winning only, then we will succeed but at great cost.

by pan230oh on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:05:49 AM EST

Those tails o'coats are looking great (2.00 / 1)

Do you realize how much more money than usual the Dems have? And how much of a fundraiser Obama is?

And how fast GOP legislators are jumping ship from Congress, because they KNOW it's going to be a disasterous fall for them?

Congressional Democrats are going to enjoy the ride, trust me.

by Slim Tyranny on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:16:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Race for November (none / 0)

Three Cheers for a sane and positive diary.

I spend enough time here to forget that we are in good shape for the fall. I think after a few months as HRC supporters come back into the fold the electoral map will increasingly turn blue. I really am excited about January 2009.

McCain = bad Obama = good

by CAchemist on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:00:02 PM EST

just for the record... (none / 0)

The notion that McCain takes WI over Obama is complete nonsense. Obama leads in 8 of the last 10 polls in the state, and the ones in which he trails are both Rasmussen polls to the rejection of every other pollster.

The MyDD electoral maps are crap... even were we to give much credit to polls this far out.

by Casuist on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:37:57 PM EST

wrong: McCain will get support from HRC supporters (2.00 / 2)

and Obama will lose in landslide

Landslide of lies

by engels on Wed May 28, 2008 at 12:44:13 PM EST

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