If Obama held Ohio by one over this last week, I feel reasonably good about our chances.

Both McCain and Obama had voters in their party who during the primary said they would never vote for them.   In my mind the candidate, or the party, that bring more of these voters back on board to support their ticket will be the winner in states like Ohio.

I can't decide who has the harder sell, McCain with the wingnuts, or Obama with the working class whites, and seniors.

A little dip for Obama in Florida, though I think his last numbers were a bit inflated.

I'm struck by the Ohio numbers re: 2004 voters. Bush voters go for McCain 87-11; Kerry voters go for Obama 87-11. Forget party ID, this indicates how close it is.

Not having Ken Blackwell in office may be the most important determinant in Ohio.

I feel pretty good about these polls.  Of course, I'd like all of them to be better, but they were taken during the BY FAR worst period of Obama's summer campaign.  If that was the outcome during that period, it shows good base strength and room to grow as long as we campaign hard and stay on the offensive.

What speaks volumes to me is the ground organization that can't be polled.  Kerry's was pitiful and Bush had a sound operation.  Now the tables seem to have turned - mass organization on the Obama side and a McCain machine that seems like an underfunded Bush operation without the reach or goodwill.  Case in point...

McCain has 9 Ohio offices; Obama has 56 Ohio offices!

McCain has a handful of Pennsylvania offices; Obama has 29 offices!

Even in Florida where McCain has 39 offices and a tremendous amount of demographic strength and appeal - Obama still has 36 offices.

That's not counting the enormous number in places like Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and even North Dakota - where the McCain presence is marginal.

Republicans, clearly, have rallied behind McCain.  I'll suggest a few reasons for this.  The Republican primaries ended more than six months ago.  They weren't nearly as protracted and acrimonious as the Democratic contest.  The Republicans have done a good job defining Obama to their base as an out-of-touch liberal.  Some fraction of voters who used to describe themselves as Republicans no longer do (those left are a more hard-core bunch).  Republican voters, in general, are more susceptible to the whole "hate" thing.

ne of the funnier aspects of likability polls is the ease with which GOP voters will come to hate whomever is on the other side.  I think that's just a function of the psychology of being a Republican.  Hating the enemy is one of the benefits.  They see the world as "light vs. dark", as opposed to the "every argument has two sides" relativism Dems are famous for.

Anyway.  These Q poll numbers aren't bad.  If the election were held today they suggest that Obama would probably win Ohio by a few points.  He's winning indies by a small margin, and of the Dems who are still on the fence Obama would just need to win half (though the more he can win over the better he'll do).  

Still, can't help but wonder what role race is playing in all of this.  McCain is winning over voters who are over 45.  Can't help but think of my grandfather (who lived in Cincinnati, though he's passed on).  He's the sort of Democrat who would have said, "I hate the Republicans but I can't vote for a black guy" (and would have voted for McCain w/ a second thought).

Love you, grandpa!  You were a great guy!  You were friendly to almost everyone!  But this was the crappiest thing about you.  Hope you're in a better place and have learned how wrong about this sort of thing you were.  

The more I think about it, the more it seems that the election will come doen to  Ohio and Virginia. Obama has to win one of these two to go over the top.

And I think that Ohio will be the more difficult of these. In the opinion polls before the primaries, Obama's strength in Ohio was usually overstated.

"bag," though I make this claim with trepidation; Obama has held anywhere from a 3-7 point despite not performing particularly well this summer and not having made one visit himself to the state whereas McCain has made at least five personal appearances.

Florida is becoming to us what Michigan is to McCain, though I suspect McCain has a much better shot in Florida given that he hasn't spent a dime in Florida on ads while we bombarded him with them and only been able to stay within three for our efforts.

Ohio, Colorado, VA, and NH are complete toss-ups right now.

To flip Ohio on the electoral vote counter.

Let's not get too cocky!